Coronavirus Update:
People have basically moved on. Kids are back in school, most Americans are vaccinated, some with booster shots. But a cold weather resurgence is possible, and there are unknowns. We aren’t done yet, or should I say … COVID 19 isn’t done yet. There are still far too many uncertainties.
November 1 Testing Update
At home tests are still easy to use and hard to find. They are too expensive for most people. This is not the case for most European countries, that provide FREE and adequate tests for people to use at home. People are heading back to work and their kids are in schools. These tests could give many people peace of mind. I have heard that at home coronavirus tests could be easily available as early as December. That could make it much easier to include the few unvaccinated family members in our gatherings from time to time.
Our Road Trip to California
We felt very safe during our road trip. The hotels we stayed in were very clean, and everyone distanced and wore masks and no one entered our room during our stay. A few observations: in the Redding area, no one was wearing masks in an Applebees restaurant. The hostess made a comment to the effect that “she sometimes wore a mask at gatherings.” We were the only masked ones in the restaurant (taking into account that one could take off their mask while eating).
Contrast this to an experience we had in Sequim, Washington on our way back to Washington. We ate dinner at Tedesco’s, an Italian Restaurant. On the front door, there was a sign that said “PROOF OF VACCINATION STATUS IS REQUIRED FOR SERVICE.” Boy did we feel safe! The server said that the mandates were declared by the county. The response to them at the beginning was a little rough but then it died when people got used to it. They really haven’t seen much of a difference in their business. Then there was the way our hotel handled the breakfast area the following morning. Two servers with masks greeted and served us, and people distanced themselves. It was different from the buffet-style setup that we had at the other hotels.
Differences in Opinion While in California
It was interesting to contrast the various opinions. It was a much better trip for me than the one last July when it was so hot. I had an easier time not engaging with people that I disagree with, and there was no drama. And I think people avoided bringing up COVID-related topics. There was a little bit of “poke the bear” sort of thing, but I ignored it.
We spent some time with our son Evan, wife Megyn and granddaughter Sara, and then headed back home via the coastal route, stopping along the way to visit some friends. We had lunch with some very close friends that have very strong political beliefs. There were a few heated exchanges regarding COVID and mandates. One stood out: A back and forth regarding whether people were being “forced” to get the vaccine through mandates. I have never believed that, and got some pushback on it. What was neat was that we parted in love and respect … true friendships! Then we stopped to see another couple that are very observant regarding COVID … partly because she was diagnosed with cancer a few months back.
Lynn and I talked about whether we think that overtime and mandates will become commonplace or whether the number of anti-VAX people will shrink from mandate pressure and social and cultural pressure. We remember house smoking and seatbelts encountered the same resistance back in the day, and both of these were also public health issues. We will wait and see, as many mandates across the country come due by the end of the year.
Kids Age 5-11 Can Now Get the Vaccine
Parents are conflicted as to whether or not their kids need to be vaccinated. It’s true that most kids that are infected have mild symptoms that they rarely die. But health officials argue that vaccination could prevent many infections, as well as school disruptions. Kids need to return to a more open life, and mask mandates may be relaxed, which could cause an uptick in infections (to the primary unvaccinated). Myocarditis, a possible vaccine side effect for children, is extremely rare. And it is always a mystery as to how a normal healthy child’s immune system will react to getting COVID. The bottom line is that getting COVID is far more risky to the heart than getting the vaccine. Like adults and older children, even if they have been infected, it is still advisable to get at least one shot. More information and statistics are at this NPR website link.
Antibody Testing: To Do or Not?
Some people might be tempted to get them or their child’s antibody levels tested, but the CDC says that those tests aren’t a reliable way to determine if a person is protected from reinfection. The CDC recommends against using them for vaccination decisions. (This correlates with what our PCP told us a few months ago). This was a big topic at a friends’ gathering in California. Some feel that they are an adequate measure to determine if they need the booster, or whether they should wait. They did get the testing and are “going by the number” and some guidance from a pharmacist. I completely disagree, but stepped back from making any arguments as it is an exercise in futility.
Continual Noise and Bad Information
A lot is wrong with the internet, but much of it boils down to this one problem: We are all constantly talking to one another. Before online tools, we talked less frequently, and with fewer people. Online media gives the everyperson access to channels of communication previously reserved for Big Business. Finally, people could publish writing, images, videos, and other material without first getting the endorsement of publishers or broadcasters. And we also received a toxic dump of garbage. The ease with which connections can be made means any post can successfully appeal to people’s worst fears, transforming ordinary folks into radicals.
Ian Bogost in TheAtlantic.com (THE WEEK Magazine: November 5, 2021).
And … “you can’t overestimate what four years of Trump and two yeas of a pandemic have done to people’s sense of solidity.” (David Axelrod: (AXIOS).
More Talk About Endemic Instead of Pandemic
People are starting to get used to the fact that COVID is never going away … it will just have fewer and fewer “places to go” … hopefully sooner rather than later. It will depend upon human behavior.
What Life is Now and What it Could Be
We’re in an interesting circumstance. The people that have decided they don’t want to be vaccinated aren’t budging and there really aren’t enough people vaccinated in our country right now to bring us to some sort of sense of normalcy. And normalcy will never be eradicating Covid. The unvaccinated really aren’t interested in protecting anyone. Their personal rights take precedence. So they freely go about their lives. In turn, many of The vaccinated think like, OK, I’m vaccinated. If I socially distance and mask, I’m doing this for the unvaccinated. Because they’re at far greater risk of getting Covid and becoming very ill from it. But … I am entitled, because I have done the right thing by being vaccinated, to go about my normal life. So to hell with that, those unvaccinated people aren’t my problem. On with life! So here we are in our continuing conundrum of case counts that flatten and then start going back up again.
Who knows when we will reach an endemic place.
Biden’s Mandate Triggers Backlash
President Biden’s administration vaccine requirement for businesses with more than `100 employees is triggering backlash that could have an effect on other public health aspects. Legal challenges are already in place. Is the short-term requirement worth the potential for long-term harm? There is no clear answer.
However, mandates work. Tyson Foods has achieved more than 96 percent vaccination in their workforce — an addition of nearly 60,000 more employees since their requirement was first announced. United Airlines is at 97 percent of workers who are fully vaccinated, up from around 70 percent before the mandate. And many businesses appreciate the “cover” that the mandates gives them to implement vaccine requirements. Obviously, the vocal minority that oppose don’t represent the clear majority of workers that support them.
But then … government overreach? Should the Federal government be compelling mandates that could jeopardize other public health measures? But … the higher the immunity, the better chance we have of preventing another devastating wave.
My main argument right now — and the reason I ultimately do not agree that Biden should pull back on workplace mandates — is that the ship has already sailed. Vaccines, and masks before that, have faced fierce opposition from the beginning. Backing down now is not going to stop the controversy, but it could well decrease our chances of emerging from the pandemic.
We should not be in these culture wars. wish that Americans would have decided to get vaccines on their own and that mandates weren’t necessary to get people to take a safe, effective vaccine that could save their lives and the lives of their families.
More about the legal challenge to Biden’s mandate and developments as they occur.
We Are in a Trust Recession
Ultimately, even as I believe we should use all measures to increase vaccine uptake, we need to focus our on preventing further erosion of trust in public health. What a tragedy it would be to emerge from covid-19 even less able to tackle the next pandemic.
Jedidiah and the Voice: A Misinformation Lost Opportunity
This is a good video with a teachable moment. It was part of a segment on The View where the show’s former co-host, Jedidiah Bila, appeared remotely (because she is unvaccinated). Misinformation by her was called out … but then was interrupted by a commercial break.
Some of the comments to it appear below:
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This is one of the first articles I’ve read that presents a good cost benefit analysis that should be part of a discussion rather than an argument. But the case for mandatory vaccination shouldn’t emphasize the harm the unvaccinated are doing to themselves (10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die) but on the harm it causes for others. Whenever a new surge arrives, hospital beds become scarce and others are harmed. If shoppers or diners feel unsafe, they won’t frequent businesses.
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No one likes to be told what to do. Just last week my 96 year old mother insisted that she didn’t need a ramp to get in her condo because her caregivers (me and my overweight and out of shape siblings) could assist her by lifting one leg at a time and holding while she ascended the two steps. In this instance I could see that pride literally would come before a preventable fall and gave her no choice in the matter. When she protested, I told her I wasn’t building a ramp for her. I was building it for me and my siblings so we wouldn’t get hurt if she fell. She can negotiate the gentle slope with her walker but I made it wide enough for the wheelchair that will soon be necessary.
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The data is clear: Natural immunity is not better. The COVID-19 vaccines create more effective and longer-lasting immunity than natural immunity from infection.
* More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies.
* Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity.
* Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective as natural immunity plus vaccination.
* The takeaway: Get vaccinated, even if you’ve had COVID-19. Vaccine immunity is stronger than natural immunity.
“Natural immunity can be spotty. Some people can react vigorously and get a great antibody response. Other people don’t get such a great response,” says infectious diseases expert Mark Rupp, MD. “Clearly, vaccine-induced immunity is more standardized and can be longer-lasting.”
A New Variant of Interest
On November 26 (Thanksgiving), it was announced that a new variant in areas of south Africa has also been detected in Hong Kong and Israel. Could be twice as dangerous as the Delta. It’s in the news everywhere.
They named it Omicron Variant. While scientists say there is reason to be concerned over the variant, they stress there is still a lot we don’t know at the moment — including whether the variant is indeed more contagious, whether it causes more severe disease or whether the vaccines will be able to work against it like they do the current variants. So it’s good to be cautious, but no need to panic.
I recalled that the Delta variant originated in India, which suffered a medical emergency in April 2021 following a series of pilgrimages described as “super-spreader” events. I was impressed that South Africa reported it right away.
President Biden has set some travel mandates in an attempt to slow the spread (assuming it will eventually get to the United States). Some have criticized this as punishment to South Africa. However the medical experts I follow all agreed that this was a good idea for the short term, in order to slow the spread … and that once more is known about the variant, other measures could be instituted and the bans could be lifted (or modified). So far, they are saying people aren’t getting very sick with it.
In the United States, the virus has spread the fastest in areas with low vaccination rates. So with this new variant, it’s hard for me to imagine things will be any different.
COVID and all of its variant glory gradually made its way to “little old Lynden, Washington.” How? The apolitical virus had plenty of stones to use in order to hop through the huge spaces to get here.
How About an Ultra Mandate?
Perhaps it’s time to issue an ultra mandate. Set a deadline for all unvaccinated to acquire the vaccine. Make it enforceable to allow exemptions for any documented immunocompromised people. Then start sending supplies to these poorer countries that have 20% percent or less vaccination rates. Variants are having a field day there. Otherwise … welcome to our whackamole world, and goodbye to any endemic life in the foreseeable future.
Too many people are ideologically driven in their quest for truth.
Vaccines Vs. Prior Infections: Which Carries Stronger Immunity
This discussion has been going on for months. This great Wall Street Journal article explains everything in great detail (based on the current research).
To summarize the article: Vaccines typically give rise to a stronger antibody response than infection, which might make them better at fending off the virus in the short term. Infection triggers a response that evolves over time, possibly making it more robust in the long term. A combination of both types appears to be stronger than either alone. But the jury is out on whether one form is stronger than the other, and whether their relative strength even matters for vaccine policy.
Long Covid is Remarkably Common
According to a November 30 article in the Washington Post, at least half of all people who survive COVID 19 go on to suffer so-called long Covid symptoms for six months or more after their initial recovery, according to new research. Scientists carried out a systematic review of 57 studies that covered more than 250,000 adults and children who were diagnosed with the disease. “One’s battle with Covid doesn’t end with recovery from the acute infection,” said study co-author Dr. Paddy Ssentongo from Penn State. (I found this link to his research on the Penn State website).
I personally know people who are now suffering from “Long Covid.” Many of them don’t talk about it. All of them were (and are) unvaccinated.
As November Comes to an End
The percentage of people that have been vaccinated in the United States as of now is 59.3%. Percentage of adults is slightly over 70%. We are definitely a distance away from any departure from a pandemic to an endemic. (Coronavirus 411 Podcast – November 30, 2021).
What do I now think about the variant?
There’s criticism about the travel bands that have started. Summer against it because it will scare people that are already there from other countries to skedaddle back home and take the virus with them. Others, however, think that instituting the bands will buy time in the countries affected until they can get enough scientific data to know more about it. I agree with the latter opinion. I recall how China’s dithering delayed work on the new coronavirus back in early 2020.
Some scientists are saying that the new variant has so many different variants that it will be more difficult for the current virus to control it. Unlike the Delta. And that it is showing that it’s far more contagious.
Others are saying we have to wait for all of the science to campaign regarding not only how contagious it is and whether the vaccine will control it, but just how sick people get, what population is affected the most, whether people can get reinfected after having this new variant, and until then we need to follow the current protocols which is getting vaccines and boosters, masking up, and distancing.
Again I like the latter approach.
And I think that there needs to be less talk and more waiting. There’s just not enough scientific data out there yet to know what we’re dealing with here.
WHO thinks there needs to be some kind of accord to allow the world to work together when there are future outbreaks.
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