As of April 1, the BIG STORY now is whether enough people can get vaccinated to get ahead of the possibility that variants, many of which are more contagious and dangerous, can create another spike and possibly an additional “wave.”
In Washington, all adults 16 and over are eligible for the vaccine. Most states have lifted the restrictions to allow all adults to obtain the vaccine. I am happy that most of our family in this age group have either started the vaccine process or have appointments. In Europe, countries have begun to lock down again because of a spike in cases (and not enough people being vaccinated).
The new CDC COVID 19 Daily Data Tracker is now a great resource.
The Information Runaround
I heard this example on a Lawfare Podcast on Tech Giants and misinformation. It’s a good illustration of how information gets passed around.
Question: When did you empty the dishwasher?
Answer: I have a long history of emptying the dishwasher. I first emptied the dishwasher in 2014. I prioritize emptying the dishwasher. Fundamentally, unloading the dishwasher is hard and will never truly be finished.
Status Updates
I revisited the new case status in Texas, where the guidelines have been relaxed. The case numbers are at a plateau as of April 1. In California, they have plateaued. Washington had a big increase in mid-March, but now the new cases have gone back down and are plateaued. The cases need to go DOWN. Reasons: Spring Break activities, people going out more, relaxed restrictions and an attitude that because the vaccine is available, “We can go back to our lives.”
Post Vaccination Decisions
When considering post vaccination behaviors,we need to consider our collective risk, not just our risk as individuals. False equivalencies such as, “if I can get together with another unvaccinated household, why can’t I have a large business meeting?” and human tendency to spin ambiguity into the most favorable outcome, produces some interesting ways of making post-vaccination decisions. Science, by nature, can be ambiguous and right now it is ever-changing.
So we will hold on just a little longer. No large groups, events, gatherings, etc., until we are in herd immunity or it is deemed to be safe. Hopefully we will be in this mode by Lynn‘s reunion scheduled for this coming September
Michigan Surge
Michigan’s case numbers have surged close to what they were last December! The number of young adults hospitalized due to Covid has increased over 600%.. Gretchen Whitmer referred to the surge this week as a “compliance, mobility and variant problem.”
When Do We Share?
There is discussion as to when the US will start donating surplus to poor nations thru COVAX. India is in a really bad way now, and other countries are experiencing a new wave. We won’t completely lick this virus until it is in control world-wide. There is too much risk that variants will sneak over from the areas with high case counts and lead to spikes elsewhere.
Vaccines are Contagious: See How It Looks to Get our Lives Back
Friends and family are getting vaccinated! Adults over 16 in all states are now eligible for the vaccine, and there are lots of locations and easy access to them. Concern is counteracting vaccination hesitancy. What used to be demand for a lack of supply, is supply and a lack of demand.
April 22 Coronavirus Fact VS Fiction (Sanjay Gupta): South Korea and COVID 19. They attribute their successes to early testing, contact tracing, and isolation. They had knowledge gained from experience with the prior MERS outbreak. Policies were adopted that put privacy behind public health. Here in the US, we argued about lockdowns and restrictions. We had a different set of priorities and policies.
In South Korea, citizens went back to work fairly quickly because of what they did early on. We didn’t do the suppression part to get to the mitigation part. And our testing was a disaster. We tripped up on the testing. If we would have had that down maybe we would not have needed the surveillance that South Korea did. Their citizens somewhat trusted the government, as they were traumatized by MERS and recalled how the government had responded. Therefore people accepted any restrictions, remembering the economic toll of MERS. They understood the threat and were willing to accept the public monitoring. Most People were willing to make sacrifices regarding privacy.
What will the US do to be prepared for another pandemic?
It’s Finally Time for a Vacay!
Lynn and I, along with Brian and Vicki, traveled down to Fresno. We spent a week there with family and friends. Most were completely vaccinated and others had one shot and were waiting for the second. This post says more about our much-anticipated trip.
Our Sunday Family Gatherings Have Resumed
Vaccinations have made this possible! My hope is that by this summer, all of us (perhaps even including 12 year-old Ashlyn) have been vaccinated. It also helps that we can now gather outdoors in the better weather. Welcome back, family time!
How Our Brains Work to Sabotage Us
There is a constant barrage of messaging on local and cable news stations, social media, and online news sources. GET YOUR VACCINE. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY WE ARE GOING TO GET RID OF THIS. Currently, it’s vaccine VS the current increase (or at least plateauing) of COVID 19 cases.
The human brain has two systems for assessing risk, and one isn’t very reliable.
The neocortex, which developed relatively late in human evolution, can make rational, risk-reward assessments based on evidence, data, and logic. The amygdala, a more primitive region we share with other mammals, reacts instantly to perceived threats with fear, anxiety, and the fight-or-flight response. Strong emotions often overrule logic, so our brains are based to overreact to exotic risks lilke terrorism, plane crashes, and tarantulas, while downplaying the much greater likelihood we will die of the flue, a car crash, heart disease … or COVID 19. For the past year, the pandemic has made us all subjects in a massive experiment on human risk assessment. We haven’t done very well.
Too many Americans decided that going about their usual activities without a mask or social distancing didn’t feel as risky as the experts were saying … and as a result, they caught and spread an invisible contagion. More than 560,000 have died. Right, I know this firsthand. It happened in our extended family.
Now our brains are assessing the risk of getting vaccinated vs. going unprotected against COVID 19. That task was complicated with the discovery that six women out of the 7 million people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine developed blood clots … a rate of 0.00008 percent. By way of perspective, an unvaccinated American’s risk of dying of COVID 19 is one in 1,666, and the risk COVID 19 will cause severe illness and lasting “long haul” symptoms is far greater. But the “pause” in J&J vaccinations, while ethical and responsible, will undoubtedly harden the resistance of the 30 percent who say they will NOT take ANY vaccine.
That would be a terrible outcome—for them and for the rest of us. The pandemic won’t truly subside until vaccinations give the coronavirus vanishingly few new people to infect. Those whose anygdlae are wrongly telling them vaccines are riskier than COVID 19 may well determine when, and if, life returns to normal. (Source: Willliam Falk, Edito-in-Chief, THE WEEK, April 23, 2021.
A Dr Fauci Revisitation
In an interview with Dr. Sanjay Gupta in the podcast “Coronavirus: Fact VS Fiction,” Dr. Fauci was asked about his challenges over the last year. He answered that although he followed what the latest available science was revealing, his responses were often personalized. He was asked how he felt about that. His response was it was like that of a doctor/patient discussion. A doctor is taking care of a patient that is very ill. Because of the disease’s awful effect on them, they react in a certain way. But you don’t walk away from them. You still try to comfort, save, and take care of them. Many patients are difficult. So … dealing with difficult patients is part of the job. He still has to deliver the messages. He was not going to throw up his hands and walk away from his patient (or the country).
Science and truth is going to rule, and the evidence of the data. Dr. Fauci was relieved that this was President Biden’s optic from the beginning. And he was also grateful that there is such a great medical team that works and collaborates well together.
The dilemma is that people want certainty. They don’t want vague “perhaps” “maybe” “I think so” or “it could be by this _____date.” So then, people process this as no guidance or answers being received by the messenger. He doesn’t resent this … but people “demand a number.” For example, there is no clue right now when we will be back to normality. So he provides approximates and information regarding what the data is showing right now … but if things don’t happen in a “certain way,” the messengers are targeted by people, the media, political players, etc. The right answer is one that is broadly applicable to the population, knowing that people will argue whether the information is stringent, too lax, etc. But each person has a different gauge for the amount of risk they are willing to take, no matter what the current situation is.
Dr. Fauci is asked, “what would you do?” He has to be careful not to be behind or ahead of the current science, while sticking to being broadly applicable. But the messaging is always confusing.
Why was there variation on how states handled COVID 19, and also the various consequences?
Some states said they locked down … but data showed that no, they actually weren’t. Are you judging what the rule was, or what people actually did? Looking at states and countries that ACTUALLY shut down showed that these mitigations do work to control outbreaks.
He thinks we will go back to hugging and shaking hands, but will be more aware of public health measures. He mentioned how little influenza we had over the last year. He thinks people won’t go out of their way (flying to Paris to present a paper, when he can do it via Zoom).
Both preparedness and response have to be invested in, whether we use it or not. Similar to having a good Department of Defense. Invest in it, but hope it doesn’t have to be used.
This 80-year old epidemiologist was a consistent calm presence in an uncertain time. I am a grateful citizen of what hopefully will be a grateful nation.
As the Month Comes to a Close
Cases are either going up or plateauing in Washington. There are hardly any 60+ people getting sick or hospitalized. The cases are coming from the 20- to 50 year old adult population … that are “back to their lives” but not vaccinated yet.
Vaccination hesitancy is still a big problem.
The US is taking steps to share doses, PPE, and other materials with other nations.
Lynn and I are looking forward to a MUCH BETTER summer this year! But we will monitor the COVID 19 case status. Canada is very slow in their vaccination effort, and the border is still closed.
Indoor (and possibly some outdoor) events may not be possible for some months yet.
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