The Omicron Variant is the Current Big Story
Ultimately, Omicron’s effect on the course of the pandemic will be determined by three factors: its transmissibility; the degree to which it evades our existing immune defenses; and its virulence, or the severity of the disease that it causes.
It is universally believed by scientists that even if every human on Earth gained a degree of immunity from vaccination or infection, the virus could retreat into its many animal hosts, only to reenter the human population in a slightly different form.
There are worse fates. “In some ways, Delta is the ideal variant,” Scarpino said: It’s transmissible enough to dominate more dangerous variants, and its virulence can be controlled through vaccination. In the next few weeks, we’ll find out whether Omicron will have its own silver lining—or whether it’ll be catastrophically worse.” The Atlantic (December 2021: Omicron’sBest-and Worse Case Scenarios) Opinion by Rachel Gutman.
I Am Sick of the Pandemic
I loved this Editor’s letter that appeared in this month’s The Atlantic. It summarizes EXACTLY how I feel at the moment … better than I could have stated it. I’m citing it in its entirety.
I am sick of the pandemic. You are sick of the pandemic. We are all very, very sick of the pandemic. It seemed Last spring that vaccination might soon end this ordeal … and then, Delta brought a huge new wave of misery and death, nearly all of it among the unvaccinated. Booster shots seemed to promise a real measure of freedom going into this winter … and now Omicron may (or may not) set us back again. Viruses are microscopic bits of parasitic proteins that exist only to replicate themselves, but natural selection makes them a formidable, shape-shifting enemy. As it mutates and spreads from person to person and continent to continent, SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t care if we’re weary of the fight; in fact, when potential human hosts act as if the pandemic were over, they do the virus a great favor. Even before Omicron reared its ugly, mutated head, Covid was still killing more than 1,200 Americans a day—a rate of more than 430,000 deaths a year.
In 1943, everyone was no doubt sick of World War II. But one side cannot call the end of a war and expect peace to follow. This pandemic is a wr between all of humanity and an inmvading virus. Human beings are smarter (or should be); less than a year after a new virus began its assault, science, medicine, and government had devised, manufactured, and started distributing billions of doses of a weapon exquisitely designed to neutralize SARS-CoV-2, but millions of people have refused to enlist in the battle, and the vaccines have thus far failed to reach large swaths of the population. Giben time and opportunity, the enemy continues to evolve new weapons of its own. Our frustration and impatience won’t change reality. So let’s put on our big-boy and big-girl pants and do what’s necessary to end this damn pandemic. Get vaccinated. Get boosted. Wear masks in indoor public places. Don’t spread the virus. Join the war effort.
William Falk, Editor-in-Chief. Editor’s Letter (The Atlantic: December, 2021).
Underfunded Obscurity
Because of the new variant, there is a lot more being said now about the need to go back and review what we have learned over the last two years about pandemics with the goal of working on an overall plan policy revision and strategy so that we are prepared for the next one. We can’t afford to go back to underfunded obscurity.
I heard on a podcast that a poll was taken and the overwhelming majority of the United States population are in favor of mandates. they view mandates as a way out of our low vaccination rates and they move away from the possibility of lockdowns.
A friend mentioned that someone had told her that Finland has a very low case and death rate. Since I know someone that had a Finnish wife and has a Finnish daughter, I knew a little bit about the culture and the country. But I did some research. Finland‘s smaller than the state of California. The Finns trust their government. They had lockdowns at the very beginning, but they have managed several mandates over the last couple of years. Nobody questions them. They are also very private and introverted people and prefer to be left alone and are fine staying at home and consider physical distancing to be the norm. They are a highly tech savvy population and all adults and children have access to computers and other technology. The citizenry eagerly downloaded a contact tracing app on their phones when it became available. Within 24 hours, over 1 million people had it on their phones. They are uncomfortable with people getting too close to their personal space. Over 70% of the population works for the government. They were very much against lockdowns, but had no problem with mandates.So there. Human behavior. Trust. Unity.
We have all the tools
There’s a lot of global anxiety over the whole Omicron variant. But this made sense to me. We have all the tools to prevail over Omicron. We just need to use them. We have masks, ventilation, rapid antigen tests, and vaccines that are remarkably potent against hospitalization and death. What’s holding us back is our unwillingness and resistance to use all of these tools. Resistance that’s made the US the world leader in new infections, with more than 90,000 new Delta cases a day. That’s our biggest problem, not Omicron.
(Eric Topol in TheGuardian.com)
Whatcom County Struggles
During the week of December 6, There were several small lockdowns at various high schools and a few middle schools throughout Whatcom county. They’ve been causing a lot of anxiety and turmoil, and they haven’t been able to figure out what’s driving them yet.
I talked to my mentor coordinator on Tuesday, December 7, and he was telling me how exhausted, both physically and mentally, the students and staff were at the Nooksack high school. They are all trying to keep their head above water. And in this area, it’s not just Covid but also the horrible flooding that has ruined many of their homes.
On December 9 I went to a lunch in Bellingham with my local book club friends. One of them had been to a Lynden restaurant with her husband. They entered the restaurant wearing masks and noted that no one there was wearing them. They got in line to place their order, and noticed that people were sniggering, pointing, and making sarcastic remarks directed at them. At one point a child came up to them, pointed at their faces and started giggling. They were being harassed because they were wearing masks. They immediately left the restaurant. What is wrong with these people?
The Covid case counts are still creeping upward, and it’s uncertain whether it was caused by the recent Thanksgiving holiday or some flooding that occurred north of us. it doesn’t appear that they’re ever going to flatten, much less go down. I also noted in the Bellingham Herald newspaper that Lynden ‘s percent of vaccinated is in the 50s. It’s One of the lowest in the county.
Lynn had an appointment with his primary care physician this week. We got into a discussion about anti-vaccine patients. He realized that he couldn’t give them the impression that he was trying to tell them what to do. He has to listen, and then offer information for their consideration. He also acknowledged the fact that Lynden is an area that has its own particular challenges.
Vaccine skepticism stems in part for messages on social media and conservative outlets like Fox News, Sinclair broadcast group and talk radio. Pundits on these platforms often stop short of telling people not to get vaccinated, even if they send a general negative message about the shots. They criticize vaccine mandates sensationalized rare side effects and describe vaccination is a personal choice. They certainly do not deliver the clear message that scientist and democratic politicians have: get vaccinated, please, as soon as possible.
Why don’t conservative pundits tell the world if they’re vaccinated? That would certainly be more persuasive than those they don’t listen to like President Biden, Anthony Fauci, or a New York Times journalist. (Source: The New York Times)
One detail is that Covid deaths in both swing counties and heavily Biden counties have not risen over the past two months even as nationwide case numbers have surged.
Doing the Math
The Omicron variant appears to be so contagious that even a modest decline in severity could still lead to a large spike in deaths. Some basic math makes the point: imagine that the risk of death is 30% lower from an Omicron case than a Delta case. But Omicron leads to a tenfold increase in cases. This combination would lead to a substantial increase in deaths. I can see where our death count could very easily surpass a million
Pandemic Preparedness and Response
As the pandemic in 2021 is reviewed it’s too early to really identify the failures in these two areas. Eventually they will be, and the answers will help us in the years ahead.
COVID is exploding
As the month comes to a close, Covid cases have doubled in tripled in some areas. They’re attributing 50 to 75% of the increase to Omicron. There is less serious illness hospitalization and death, but because of the high numbers Of those getting infected, math dictates that the other numbers will be proportionately higher as well.
The US fully vaccinated rate is still hovering around 61%. The percentage of people having gotten the booster is in the 30%.
The CDC has shortened the quarantine after diagnosis to five days, but only for those that are asymptomatic and vaccinated. This has still caused confusion for many people though. I heard a sports announcer talking about the new guidance, but he never Mentioned the words asymptomatic and vaccinated. And speaking of sports, there are many NFL players that are now infected as well as soccer players. People are saying there was some secrecy there and people lying and basically doing their own thing which resulted in all of these cases. So now whole teams and all of those people in all of those jobs are being affected by those bad decisions.
Anger Management
I had a good discussion with son Brian. I shared with him that I wasn’t sleeping well and felt that I was having anxiety due to anger.
Our discussion helped me to refocus on what I can change, and what I cannot. I cannot change the choices of others. I can change my response to their choices.
The Difference Between Superficial and Mindful Awareness
All around me, I see people that are examples of a lack of mindfulness concerning the pandemic. they know it’s here, they acknowledge that it’s important and it affects lives, but they’re not incorporating this awareness into their every day life decisions and are not considering how their choices affect other people.
Examples, some of which I am guilty, include: Gathering with unvaccinated people; gathering with unvaccinated and not requiring them to get testing; gathering with groups of people knowing there are vulnerable people in attendance; and not getting tested before attending a gathering or event. People are feeling free and not wearing a mask in a public place, even though there’s a state mandate requiring masks and our local cases are skyrocketing. They are denying the benefit of vaccines and not even willing to call their doctors for more guidance and direction. I’m not referring to the skeptical and the unsure (their numbers have diminished). I’m referring to the deniers.
Peace and Pure Joy
December 31: New Year’s Eve is approaching. What are my thoughts right now? A great deal of anguish and concern for those suffering with a consequence of other peoples decisions, and concern over those that are currently vulnerable. I promise to have a kind and non-shaming attitude towards ALL others, promise to be patient and wait for that which I do not know yet, and promise to continue trusting our medical team.
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