Battling the Conspiracy Theories
I received a video from a family member via Messenger. It was a speech made by a doctor (in Spanish, with captions) full of COVID 19 conspiracy theories. Since so much of this content is now being screened and blocked by social media, these theorists have resorted to new measures … including creating their videos in a foreign language (primarily Spanish).
Although more people are willing to get the vaccine, some aren’t. They point to the the FDA trial approval being a reason to be hesitant, along with concerns regarding vaccine effects. People of color are also wary due to past history having to do with medical science and vaccine testing and development (such as the tragic legacy of Henrietta Lacks). Lynn and I are eager to get the vaccine; we have taken a risk/benefit approach.
Media Optics are Better
The social media, TV ads, and mainstream news are presenting accurate optics to ease minds and provide greater COVID 19 information transparency. There is no more arguing about wearing masks, distancing, avoiding events, and gathering. However, there is still discussion regarding the opening of schools and reopening of businesses. Most points are valid. I believe that these decisions need to be made based on the circumstances in specific communities. There is no “one shoe fits all” solution.
Dr Fauci discusses what working for Trump was really like. (New York Times)
Frontline Workers, Budweiser, Bill Gates, and Dolly Parton. I began seeing posts that frontline workers were receiving their vaccines. As of February 10, the ones I know in Fresno are fully inoculated. Many older peers are also getting their “jabs.” There is unanimous support for frontline workers, and a greater awareness of their value based on the current COVID 19 media coverage.
Budweiser declined to produce ads for the 2021 Super Bowl; instead, they donated the funds to COVID 19 support. As of this date, Bill and Melinda Gates have donated $1.75 billion towards challenges relating to COVID 19 breakthroughs to the world. And Dolly Parton donated $1 million to Moderna and the development of their vaccine.
Not Enough Vaccine
We are waiting. Since Lynn and I were certified late last month, I’ve been checking vaccine availability through our healthcare provider and local pharmacy. There is no available vaccine. I’ve attended a couple of Whatcom County Health Department town hall meetings (online). They tell us that they are set up to distribute, and that the current issue is vaccine supply. They also encourage us to be patient. So we will do this.
The Trump administration invested heavily in rapid vaccine development, but it left the last mile of getting shots into arms to states and localities. That approach resulted in multiple, sometimes contradictory systems, and failed to ensure local sites had information about vaccine shipments that they needed to quickly administer shots. (Wall street journal, February 18, 2021.
Up here in Washington, they are working very hard to set up vaccination sites, both for mass vaccinations and other facilities such as care providers and pharmacies. although there’s not nearly enough vaccine at the moment, they are Assuring us that they will be ready when the supply ramps up.
We just weren’t prepared, nor were we ready, with any of the needed systems to combat this pandemic, including the vaccine rollout.
On February 11, President Biden announced that 200 million additional doses have been contracted. So by June or July, there will be a total of 300 million doses of vaccine … one for every adult in the country. A contract has been signed for additional doses.
Who should get the vaccine. The shortage has created discussion among those anxious to get the vaccine. Most agree front line workers should be first. Some then say the “hotspots” should be a high priority (such as care facilities, hardest-hit communities of color and other disadvantaged groups, age/health conditions). I am thinking that this is what is going on here in Whatcom County. They are focusing on these priorities and then the high-risk elderly (those 80 and over, and those with serious health conditions). We are OK with this. We can wait. I think we will get ours by sometime in March. But that is just a guess.
Vaccine Efficacy. There are differences in efficacy regarding vaccines. Will that make a difference? Will people want to choose one over the other? And, maybe it won’t matter to get us to herd immunity. It may be that we will all need boosters in the future.
Additional Vaccine. On February 4, Johnson & Johnson submitted its vaccine for FDA approval. It is a single-dose vaccine that does not require refrigeration. It’s now uncertain whether the two-dose vaccines provide better immunity. It does not use a live virus. It’s slightly less effective, but not enough to make a difference. If approved, it should be available by the end of March.
Talking About What’s Next
What’s in the future? Maybe in a few years, there will be a Roaring 20’s-like boom in the economy. What businesses will return, and what others will fold forever? Will people make permanent lifestyle changes because of the pandemic? Will people be more educated and attuned when it comes to science and how vaccines work? Will they then be grateful for where medical science brought us to allow us to get out of this pandemic? Will they understand more about the vaccine development process and health issues? During my lifetime, there has not been a pandemic of this scope, and I’ve never felt a need to educate myself regarding vaccine development or efficacy. I just did what I was told … got the shots, got them for the kids …. I’ve learned more about all of this in the last 6 months than I learned through osmosis over the last 50 years.
How will our children and grandchildren process the pandemic experience? I recall how affected my stepfather was by the Great Depression. And it carried over to his lifestyle choices. This was typical for the Silent Generation. We Boomers probably won’t have the answers to these questions before we depart this earth.
A Third Stimulus
It appears as if a new stimulus plan will be rolled out by early March. As of mid-February, there has been some bipartisan agreement but it’s still an uphill climb. Negotiation is ongoing over whether there will be a guaranteed minimum wage of $15/hour and who will receive this third stimulus. Republicans are concerned that people are receiving it that didn’t need it (understandable). Generally, it’s the same argument … they all agree a stimulus needs to happen … but the Democrats spend too much, and the Republicans are in denial regarding the needs of the American people.
School Reopening
Schools opening versus teacher safety. These aren’t binary issues. If the schools are safe, then the teachers can come back. But that can be complicated. In some areas, unions are getting involved to defend teachers that feel it is unsafe to go back to in-person learning. Districts agree that kids are far better off with in-person schooling. But the decisions involve how safe the schools are, what protocols are in place, and what the current case rate in the area. This really hasn’t changed.
Is It Time to Let Our Guard Down?
In some areas, cases have dropped (they continue to yo-yo in Whatcom County, and specifically Lynden). It’s unclear whether this is due to the vaccine distribution (seems too soon for data) … or, that we are beyond the holiday gathering period spikes. Or perhaps were doing a better job of using the protocols. This has led to reopening businesses, reopening schools, etc. Is it too soon to reopen and relax a bit? I got some guidance shortly after the middle of the month.
Variants and Current Guidelines
There is too much that is STILL not known. The vaccines won’t save us right now, nor will they get us back to normal. It will take more than that, for just a bit longer.
On February 16, I listened to a podcast that featured a virologist named Dr. Angie Rasmussen. She talked about the new COVID 19 variants and how they occur. She stated that it’s not only important that we get the shots in arms, but the guidelines still need to be followed to lower the transmission. There are STILL too many unknowns … there is not enough data yet.
Interpreting the Current Downturn
The country is currently experiencing a downturn in cases. They are lower now than they were before November. However, they are still five times higher than they were during the low point back in June. There isn’t enough data yet to determine why cases have declined. It could be due to the holiday surges being over, or because stricter guidelines were followed to get us out of that holiday surge.
What to Do?
When you take a medication, such as an antibiotic, you have to complete the whole dose or else some bacteria could be left, and the illness that comes back could be worse and harder to treat. This analogy could be used with COVID 19 and the whole country. Unfortunately, due to the current downturn, some governors are easing restrictions. They are doing the equivalent of skipping doses of medicine.
The Impact of Variants
We have variants right now, and there will be new variants in the future. Variants have been occurring for months … they didn’t just pop up within the last couple of months. Each person that becomes infected with COVID 19 provides another opportunity for the virus to mutate. There are currently three significant ones … originating in UK, South Africa, and Brazil. They all appear to be more transmissible than other variants that are out there. They also may not be as treatable as some of the older variants. The ones that can better replicate are a threat. So we are running a race between variants and the vaccine.
If we could snap our fingers and vaccine everyone at once, maybe there would be no problem. But that can’t happen. Currently, only about 4% of the population is immunized and only 10% have had a single vaccination. 70% is needed, but at this pace, it’s going to be a while. So we can’t give up on basic guidelines and strategies to slow the spread. And that includes distancing, and avoiding risky things such as dining in restaurants. That’s like deciding to not take your antibiotic because the symptoms are getting better.
Solutions?
Hopefully the next COVID 19 relief plan will be released soon. That should help us to stay the course and safely move forward. More support for testing, tracking, businesses, policies such as paid sick leave, isolation without loss of income, and creating safe and healthy workspaces will all help slow the spread.
We need to vaccinate as many as possible, and as quickly as possible. We also need to take away opportunities for the virus to replicate. This can’t be done just with vaccines. There is not enough vaccine, and we can’t quickly get it into arms. So we need to double down on all of those guidelines that we are all sick of.
The Threats are Real
In some ways we were “waiting for medicine to save us.” But our infrastructure is not set up to handle vaccine disbursement. What if we get a variant that is resistant to our current vaccine, and we can’t get a handle on it? It is uncertain whether this could occur but there is a possibility.
If we don’t take measures to reduce transmission, then the variants have a good shot at spreading and we will be where we were a few months ago. And it will be more difficult because they could evade prior immunity or current vaccines. So we can’t place all of our faith in vaccines. We need to look at other ways to control transmission while developing other vaccines. If transmission is reduced low enough, in addition to vaccination, it could get us out of this much sooner than doing this “back and forth” that occurs due to poor public policy and … politics. We need a public health-driven strategy! And at some point, President Biden won’t be able to blame Trump for the current situation. That won’t work anymore.
Governors need to implement policies that allow people to not be in danger. It’s difficult to ask people to stay home and not go to work, particularly if they can’t call in sick. Hopefully the upcoming stimulus will help with this.
Public Perceptions
People are over-invested in vaccines. It is the combination of vaccination AND keeping up with the guidelines and policies meant to decrease the spread that will get us out of this.
It’s unknown how many people will be willing to take the vaccines once the supply is out there and everyone can get one. Will some people still say no or want to “wait and see?”
If there is another surge in cases (likely due to opening too soon after the decline and not following strategies to lower the spread), people could assume that this is because “the vaccines don’t work.” But instead, it would be because there were crappy policies that forced people to go out and engage in high risk behavior. We must implement high risk reduction policies. People could just say, “the cases are up, there is this new variant from South Africa, the vaccines aren’t working, so why should I bother?” And there we would go, right back down where we were before.
If we could just stay the course for the next few months, until the vaccines are all available, and keep doing things to keep the cases down, we could eliminate this back and forth decline and surge dynamic, and public confidence would increase. Lynn and I are going to continue doing what we are doing now, even after we get the vaccine, until we see that things are safely moving forward.
Vaccine Side-Effects
Those getting vaccines that are in a younger age category are sometimes experiencing more severe side effects. I learned that this could be due to their very strong and young immune systems that strike back hard against what the vaccine is doing. This is not a bad thing. Older people (with weaker immune systems) typically don’t experience these severe effects. People are being told to stay the course and get the second dose, even if the first one causes some discomfort. The side effects last a short time, and then completely go away (unlike an illness, which can gradually go away).
People MUST take the second dose. They cannot avoid it because of some unproven theory. That is foolhardy and dangerous.
Other than this, all I am hearing is the typical sore arm, fatigue, or “no symptoms” story from those I know that have gotten it.
No Vaccine for Us … Yet.
Lots of neighbors and friends have gotten, or are getting, the vaccine. I sent a message to our Health Care Provider, requesting an update. They assured us that they will eventually get to us, and that they are following the guidelines set forth by the state. Based on what I’ve heard, they are working on people 80 or older and hardest-hit communities. They also said we could try another avenue … just make sure that they guarantee we will also get our second dose from them.
So I will keep checking with Rite-Aid Pharmacy in Lynden while waiting for our healthcare provider to call us.
Back to normal by April? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
Vaccine Time is Coming!
I was able to get Lynn and I appointments in a small town about 12 miles away. It’s scheduled for March 24. But I’ll keep trying my other leads because I feel pretty sure that we can get an earlier appointment and then I’ll just cancel this one. But it still gives me a Lyft that at least now, we have a for sure date.
Um, maybe not. I view this as just another opinion piece.
But I will check back by the end of April to see where we are. I trust the science for what it does know now, and does not know yet. I do not trust the American public. Too much divisiveness, false optics and misinformation. We will never know if we did too much. But we will definitely know if we did too little.
Vaccine!
After various episodes of whack-a-mole, I was able to get us appointments to receive the Pfizer vaccine on February 22, at Sea Mar in Bellingham WA. Happy Day! We experienced no side effects. More details in my post about getting the vaccine.
Life Right After Vaccine
When deciding what you can and can’t do, you should think less about your own vaccination status, and more about whether your neighbors, family, grocery clerks, delivery drivers, and friends are still vulnerable to the virus.
Getting vaccinated means that your choices no longer endanger you much, but they still might make you a risk to everyone else. To put this in more concrete terms: If a vaccinated person goes out to eat, they can’t yet be sure that they’re not carrying the virus and spreading it to their unvaccinated fellow diners and the restaurant staff, or that they won’t pick up the virus at the restaurant and bring it home to their unvaccinated family.
How much you can safely branch out in your activities and social life depends on the baseline level of virus in your community. everyone, vaccinated or not, should try to keep track of three metrics in your area: The number of new daily cases per 100,000 people, the rate at which people transmit the virus to one another, and the rate at which people test positive for the virus.
If vaccinated people flock to indoor restaurants or go unmasked in a crowd, they’re not just risking infecting others if they can indeed spread the virus, Popescu said. They’re contributing to a sense that life as we knew it before March 2020 is back, despite the fact that more than 65,000 people are still contracting the virus each day. Simply returning to our old habits would be deadly.
Given what we do know so far, the most likely way for a vaccinated person to get seriously ill from the coronavirus would be if they encounter a variant that the vaccine they received doesn’t effectively protect against. Such variants are much more likely to emerge if the virus is allowed to rage in particular places or groups before the overwhelming majority of the world’s people can be vaccinated.
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