COVID 19: October 2020

President Trump and First Lady Melania Have COVID

A few days after the first Presidential Debate, a key Trump official tested positive for COVID 19. Shortly thereafter, it was revealed that Trump himself, along with FLOTUS Melania Trump, tested positive.

President Trump has frequently discounted the wearing of masks, social distancing, and crowd gathering in both word and deed. Although testing was frequent, social distancing and masking was not, in spite of events and gatherings with many in attendance.

Melania quarantined in the White House and eventually recovered. After a few days, President Trump was transported to Walter Reed Medical Center, where he stayed for a period of days, and continued a regimen of treatment protocols. It is unclear exactly how sick he was; however, he declared upon release from Walter Reed Medical Center:

“I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of COVID. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs and knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!”

Early October

Case numbers are up in several states, mostly in the midwest. It appears to be primarily due to inside social gatherings, and “opening back up” which is exacerbated by the fall season and cooler weather, which begins early in that part of the country.

Up here in Whatcom county, cases have gone up but there were a large number of cases in a care facility in Bellingham that could’ve accounted for it.

High Emotion Leading Up To the Election

Things are at a feverish pitch. At this time I have no idea who will win this Presidential Election. It has everyone’s attention right now.

Cases are down in Fresno county. Looking forward to my Fresno trip coming up this month!

Conspiracies are at a Fever Pitch

Conspiracy theories are difficult to displace because they provide explanations for events that are not fully understood, such as the current pandemic, play on people’s distrust of government and other powerful actors, and involve accusations that cannot be easily fact-checked,” (study co-author Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, said in a news release).


My Opinions Don’t Matter. Following the Science, Loving on Family and Friends, and Relying on God is what Does.

I don’t need to attempt to argue, discuss, question opinions I believe are misinformation, false narratives, or politically motivated. I’m entitled to my opinion and others are to theirs. Many misunderstandings, including mine, will someday be answered .

QUIT BEING “RIGHT.  “BE HUMBLE. What does the LORD require of you? To act justly and to love mercy and to walk humbly with your God. Micah 6:8 –  Humble people know when to speak up and when to be silent.  I’ve learned the power of letting other people have the last word. It won’t kill me. People listen to our lives even more than our words, and it will be love that moves them in the end, not the last word. “

(Bob Goff, “Live in Grace Walk in Love.” Thomas Nelson Pub.)


Trip to California

I was so glad to be able to see family and friends! It’s been eight long months, which was too long.  Mask-wearing, social distancing, limited gatherings, etc., were basically the same there as it is here in Washington. One exception: the weather was still warm enough to enable lots of outside dining. The only high-emotion I experienced while there had to do with the upcoming election. People are very outspoken. I just kept quiet and remembered to stay silent.

The air travel went great. No one sat next to me on any flights. Total mask-wearing, from the time I entered the airport until I left. That did get old … but everyone was doing it. So how could I complain? It’s what we have to do. I felt safe and comfortable and based on the way things stand now, I would fly again.


Mid-October

COVID 19 Cases Are Back Down

I was pleased to notice that the case numbers in Whatcom County are heading down now. I’m praying they stay there, and even go down further … people aren’t getting out as much anymore because of the colder weather. That could increase cases, but for now I’m glad that’s not happening.

Case counts are also down in Fresno County. Hooray!  Grateful for the positives. However, cases are going up in the midwest … perhaps because the weather gets cold sooner there. It’s shut in and flu time …. we will continue to stay home and follow the guidelines as we have been asked to do. They haven’t changed for us since March.

As if the Misinformation Epidemic Couldn’t Get Any Worse ….

The misinformation epidemic, anger, and division now seems to me to be a secondary public health crisis. It’s affecting everything positive that is coming out regarding COVID 19. I see it on Facebook, hear of it happening on podcasts, and hear it from friends and family. I keep my mouth clamped shut.

I listened to a wonderful audio book about Dr. Fauci that was created by Michael Spector. I agreed with so much that was in it. A few highlights:

You never hear Fauci and his colleagues telling us “I told you so.” But they have told us so, over and over again. In the last 15 years we have lived through an array of outbreaks. We face a combination of inertia, apathy and fear. We aren’t even close to harnessing the virus.  We wait. Really??? We don’t even bother to get the flu shot that is now available. The next threat could just as well be created in a lab and we won’t be prepared (remember Anthrax)??? Thinking just has to be adjusted.

Dr. Fauci has been warning us since 2005, when the Bird Flu first came out.

Some Pandemic History

The Pandemic Preparedness Plan of the US emanated out of the Anthrax attacks in 2001. This was a different kind of virus: one that could be used as a weapon.

In 2004, H5N1 (Bird flu) leapt from waterfowl, to chickens, and then  to humans. Public health figures were terrified. They didn’t know the potential of the “Bird Flu.”  But it turned out to be hard to transmit.

The 2009 virus H1N1, Swine Flu, was highly contagious but it proved not nearly as deadly as most strains of flu. People blamed the science for being alarmist. They said, You call this piss-ant virus a pandemic? What a load of crap!

So that is the fundamental quandary of health officials everywhere: Prepare for the worst, and be blamed if nothing bad happens. Or hope that things turn out well, and if they don’t, get blamed for that.

There is another option: turn off the firehose in the middle of an inferno. That is what President Donald Trump did to the WHO in the middle of May of this year when he announced that the United States was withdrawing from the organization because he needed to punish SOMEONE for his own negligence.

Congress did, in 2009, appropriate some money for stockpiling antiviral medications and protective gear. Many scientists thought the effort was grossly insufficient.  Scientists have been sounding the alarm for years. An example from Seth Berkley, delivered after an Ebola outbreak: Every year we spend billions of dollars keeping a fleet of nuclear submarines permanently patrolling the oceans protecting us from a threat that almost certainly will never happen.  And yet, we spend virtually nothing to prevent something as tangible and as evolutionary certain as epidemic infectious diseases. And make no mistake about it: It’s not a question of if, but when.”

President Obama then established the Global and National Security Council for Global Security and BioDefense. It would be an early warning defense for disease in a developing world. Donald Trump disbanded the group in 2018, presumably part of an effort to streamline the National Security Council. Dr. Fauci was asked about this by Congress.  His response: “it would be nice if that office was still there.”

Money alone will never be enough to solve a public health crisis. But combine money with political will and the effects on public health would be extraordinary.

In 2003, President Bush proposed the Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, called PEPFAR, which Dr. Fauci led on a global scale. It was enormously successful and is a cornerstone for successful global health.

Current flu vaccine development occurs every year. It’s based on an educated guess. It’s a weak system. A Universal Influenza Vaccine needs to be developed, one that you take one time (like a Tetanus shot) and it would cover all the strains of influenza. If one could be produced that is effective, everyone on the earth could be vaccinated. The impact is almost impossible to overstate.

But it would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to develop and test. And it would replace a product that the public already thinks is good enough. No one has come close to raising the money that this would require. But, no one knows how much money the current COVID 19 epidemic has cost the United States. Probably well into the trillions. Current research on COVID is already in the trillions. So, the cost of doing nothing has been far greater in money and in lives.


Fact Checking

Misinformation continues to spread. Below are some facts:

Immunity: most that get infected form antibodies, generally 1-3 weeks after symptoms begin. There will be some form of immunity, but scientists don’t yet know how long that will last. People were found to have antibodies 5-7 months later. But don’t assume that everyone is in the clear, because there are now some well-documented cases of second occurrences. So we can’t, yet, assume (if we’ve had it) that we are totally immune.

Try to Mitigate by Natural Herd Immunity: Dr. Scott Atlas, added to the White House Coronavirus Task Force last August, has talked about this. How we get to herd immunity? There are two ways. One, is by vaccine, and two, by natural herd immunity. The vaccine is obviously the best choice. The second, not so much. Doing that would result in many more deaths, and overwhelmed hospitals and care facilities. And again, it’s still not clear how long the immunity would last.  Less than 10% of the population has been infected so far. Getting to 60-70% immunity could mean that 1 to 2 million people would die in the process, in the United States alone. That doesn’t sound too smart to me, Dr. Atlas.

Early Travel Restrictions Helped to Prevent Deaths: The travel restrictions from China in mid-February weren’t a complete ban. U.S. citizens and permanent residents were still able to travel from China and some carried the virus with them. Travel bans and restrictions from Europe came too late. By mid March, when they happened, there were already outbreaks.

And Still, Masks: Masks DO help to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Adults that tested positive were more likely to have dined at a restaurant, and attended gatherings. Your own mask protects those around you. Study people who become infected and learn how often they were around people that weren’t wearing masks, not how often they were wearing a mask themselves. There is no downside to wearing masks.  Like President Trump, Chris Christie became infected with COVID 19, and spent a week in intensive care. Now, he is encouraging people to wear a mask. He declares that he made a mistake, and that he should have been wearing a mask, and he now encourages others to do so. Masks became important when we came to understand two important facts: People can spread COVID even if they have no symptoms, and through aerosol spray, so when you wear a mask, you are protecting OTHERS. (Sanjay Gupta’s podcast, dated Oct 19, 2020 “Fact Checking Immunity, Travel & Masks)

As October Nears the End …

Covid 19 cases are rising in the midwestern states; however, here in the western states we are holding our own. It’s uncertain how the winter season will affect the number of new cases. Hopefully people will follow guidelines and make good choices regarding indoor gatherings and activities. We are having a very quiet holiday season. Brian, Vicki, Lynn and I will celebrate Thanksgiving and Christmas day. We will have some sort of gathering on Christmas Eve … not sure how we will manage it. Perhaps with masks on?

I’m hearing from the scientists that I trust that a vaccine won’t be available until sometime early next year at the earliest. And then distribution, obtaining herd immunity (many people will refuse to be vaccinated), will mean that we will have to follow the guidelines throughout most of 2021, and maybe even into 2022.  At this time, it’s unlikely Lynn and I will feel that it will be a good choice to take our trip to France next fall.

The upcoming General Election is occupying everyone’s mind. People are tense and anxious. We’ve had two great sermons this month. Here is a page that outlines what was covered. It provided us with much guidance regarding how to stay sane and at peace during this troubling time.

Next: COVID 19 November 2020

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